Really does "risk reduction” reduce the risk? - modelling HIV propagate among males who have sexual with guys

 Does risk reduction reduce the risk? - modelling HIV spread amongst men that have sex with men Essay

26-th ECMI Modelling Week

Last Report

19. 08. 2012—25. 08. 2012

Dresden, Australia

Chapter 10

Does " risk reduction” reduce

the danger? - modeling HIV

propagate among men who have

love-making with men

Helene Alpfjord

Engineering Math, Lund University,

Lund, Sweden.

Marco Cioffi

Department of Mathematics, College or university of Miami,

Milan, Italy.

Ingrid Johansson

Engineering Math, Lund University,

Lund, Laxa, sweden.

Verena Schmid

Department of Mathematics, Technische Universitaet Dresden,

Dresden, Australia

Rui Sequeira

Department of Mathematics, College or university of Coimbra,

Coimbra, Portugal

Instructor: Daniel Simpson

Norwegian University of Science and Technology,

Trondheim, Norway

a couple of

Abstract

HIV is growing fast among men with sex with men (MSM), thus costly important concern to study and model to be able to prevent even more spreading. We look at different strategies used by MSM to be able to reduce the likelihood of getting attacked or slowing down others. Each of our model simulating future infections, depending on the risk reduction strategies we included, was based on an outbreak model. We all considered the populace to be broken into three groups; healthy, contaminated with diagnosis and attacked without diagnosis. As expected the spreading can be controlled or perhaps decreased by using risk decrease strategies such as condom employ and medical therapy. The efficiency of strategic positioning, the choice of the sex position in order to decrease the likelihood of infection, and serosorting, picking out the spouse in order to decrease the risk of fresh attacks, depends on knowledge of HIV status, which in turn depend upon which testing level and disclosure. The knowledge of efficiency of different risk reduction approaches can be used when ever developing details campaigns and health care campaigns with MSM as customers.

2

Modeling HIV pass on among men who have sexual intercourse with males

11. you

Introduction

The best mathematical versions for disease spreading are based on flu transmitting models and also other air-transmitting disorders. Also well-known models can be found for foodstuff or normal water transmitted conditions. The sexually transmitted attacks such as HIV are rarely modelled by mathematical models. The model presented in this survey simulates the spreading between men with sex with men (MSMs). This group is interesting to version since it is a high risk group, due to the fairly high risk of obtaining infected by anal love-making compared to different sexual activities. To focus on MSMs is also ways to narrow down the project and keep it at a controllable level also to have more readily available data.

eleven. 1 . one particular

Purpose

The reason with our unit is to response the question: " Does ‘risk reduction' seriously reduce the risk? ” By the term " risk reduction” we imply different strategies one can take up in order to decrease the risk of having infected. The strategies we have considered are:

• Condom use -- how the charge of condom usage affects the distributing. • HIV testing price - how the rate of getting tested influences. • Utilization of antiretroviral treatment (ART) -- ART is actually a medicine you can earn if you are HIV positive. This both keeps you healthier and decreases the risk of dispersing the infection further more.

• Proper positioning -- This means that you take different positions during anal love-making depending on the own as well as your partner's HIV status. When you have sex with an HIV positive spouse, then the likelihood of getting infected is higher if you are open, especially if your partner ejaculates inside you, compared to the risk if you are the insertive a single. • Disclosure and serosorting - Disclosure is simply that you and your partner tell your presumed HIV statuses to each other. As you know the position of your spouse you can want to serosort, meaning that you only have sex with people with the same HIV status whenever you. If you are an HIV negative person you choose to have only sex to HIV negative men and vice versa. Due to this, the rate of condom...

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